An economist at CIDES, Umar Juoro, said that the economic growth will be at the level of 6.2 percent. In 2011, the growth was 6.5 percent.
“Exports might be weakening following the economic downturn in European countries. So, if the growth of exports this year was 14 percent, it may only reach 12 percent by 2012,” said Umar Juoro in Jakarta, on Tuesday, Dec 27.
Meanwhile, Umar said that investment might not be as huge as 2011 was. However, investors will still invest in developing countries, such as Indonesia.
Consumption will still be high, he said. By sectors, non-traded growth will still be solid while the manufacturing sector may weaken.
“Investment growth will be crippling this year with only 8.7 percent. While in 2012, it will be around 8.6 percent,” he said.
Umar said the banking credit sector will be between 23 to 25 percent next year with tighter availability of dollar loans.
“Non-traded sector such as telecommunication will still grow rapidly. Yet, trading and real estate growth may weaken. If infrastructure development is accelerated, this would compensate to the thinning out in housing sector,” he explained.
Governor of Bank Indonesia, Darmin Nasution, said that BI projects the national growth in 2012 will be 6.3 to 6.7 percent despite the global economic crisis.
Darmin said that the investment rate this year is 7.7 percent, and may head towards 9.7 - 10.1 percent in 2012. The rise in investment will eventually support people's purchasing power. The growth in household consumption in 2012 may be around 4.7 to 5.1 percent.
• VIVAnews
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